Last summer, France’s National Rally (RN) fell just short of victory. The RN, led by Marine Le Pen, was initially projected to win the most seats in France’s National Assembly; however, it then faced a daunting — and ultimately fatal — challenge when its political rivals turned allies and won the election. Absorbing their unforeseen loss, the RN held its breath and looked to the 2027 presidential election, where Le Pen was expected to lead the race as Emmanuel Macron would be term-limited.
And yet, it appears that a few months ago, their luck ran out again.
RN President Marine Le Pen had been embezzling European Parliament funds to pay her staff for the past eleven years. In March, a Paris court handed down a politically explosive ruling: Le Pen was banned from running for office for five years, shattering her ambitions of cementing France’s place in Europe’s far-right wave.
Still, the RN is neither defeated nor unprepared. Rising from the fringes of politics, the RN has fought relentlessly to even be on the French ballot. For those who celebrate, Le Pen’s ban appears to be a collapse of France’s far-right movement. However, when considering the far-right’s power to conceive emotionally powerful, anti-establishment rhetoric around immigration, their celebration may be woefully premature.
Founded in 1972, the RN’s growth has mainly resulted from the socio-economic challenges confronting France. Globalization increased competition between France and low-wage countries, exposing numerous manufacturing jobs in France to offshoring. Today, France reports one of the highest levels of wealth inequality in Europe, with the wealthiest 10% of households owning 47% of the country’s total wealth.
Consequently, economic inequality and dissatisfaction breed anger. And that anger often begs to be channeled against something. For France, it was immigrants.
Not only did globalization increase economic competition, but it also altered the cultural composition of a once monocultural France. With 74% of French citizens believing immigrants should assimilate by speaking French, the growing presence of non-English speaking Muslim immigrants has stirred resentment among some communities. This combination of struggle and a growing minority group is ripe for the far-right, anti-establishment movement to gain support quickly.
Unsurprisingly, the RN immediately spearheaded a nationalist movement against immigration, captivating both passive voters and zealous activists who yearn to resolve their economic woes. The party broke from the fringes in the 1986 legislative election. Since then, the heart of the RN’s political narrative today has always been the nationalist portrayal of immigration as the “sour outcome of globalization.”
To be clear, in France and elsewhere, the decline of the middle class and rural hardship are rooted in broader economic forces, not just immigration. But emotionally charged rhetoric around immigration has proven politically powerful. Just ask American voters.
Trump’s unconventional rise to the highest office in the nation is proof that Marine Le Pen’s ban is only fuel to the fire of far-right activism. His “enemy within” rhetoric around immigration gave struggling Americans a clear point of blame in a time of national economic downturn and confusion. An NPR investigation has found more than 100 times when Trump has said his rivals, critics, and even private citizens should be punished, fueling distrust and division within America.
In both France and the U.S., the middle class has seen jobs disappear, wages stagnate, and the cost of living skyrocket. People feel like they’re working harder for less. They don’t trust the elites, and they don’t feel heard by mainstream politicians. The RN received almost 40% support in regions experiencing both unemployment and high levels of immigration, proving the efficacy of this narrative.
So, Le Pen’s ban doesn’t make her disappear; it makes her a symbol — a symbol of a political system that her supporters believe has turned against them. When people feel left behind by the economy and betrayed by those in power, they look for someone to blame and someone who promises to fight back.
And their supporters don’t see it as accountability when either leader, against the establishment, is challenged, whether through the courts, elections, or protests. They see it as proof that the system is out to get them, that the game is rigged, and that their leader is the only one brave enough to tell the truth, even if they are a convicted felon.
Today, Marine Le Pen’s ban has united them with Trump. “FREE MARINE LE PEN,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Friday, calling the court ruling a “Witch Hunt.”
Meanwhile, the RN is already turning to a new face, Jordan Bardella, who is young, polished, and ready to convey a similar message. And this time, they’ll have Trump’s public support. Unsurprisingly, Bardella has already said that Le Pen’s conviction amounted to the “execution” of democracy, eerily paralleling Trump’s rhetorical style.
On a recent spring afternoon, Le Pen and Bardella stood unshaken as a sea of far-right protestors marched against the so-called injustice. Their numbers reflect a vigor and passion for Le Pen, as shown in a recent poll, which indicates that Bardella is expected to prevail in the presidential election with up to 36% of the total vote.
The slogan might not be “Make France Great Again,” but the playbook is the same. France must watch out, especially its immigrants, because Le Pen is not going out quietly.
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