22 Days Until the Election: The Numbers Behind a Deadlocked Race

In the last 26 seconds, Miami scored a touchdown against Cal, clinching a score of 39-38. Somehow, Cal blew a 38-18 lead by allowing three touchdowns in 14 minutes. For those 26 seconds after the kick return, every Cal fan prayed and pleaded with higher powers we could at least score a field goal. Yet, the Miami defense stopped a demoralized Cal and denied what could have been the greatest win for Cal football in recent memory.

Those 26 seconds felt like 26 years, and that sort of time warp with a close score is the best way to describe the last month of this election.

This election has been too close to call ever since Biden dropped out of the race. However, one thing is clear: Harris is fading.

In the RCP betting averages, Trump has skyrocketed. Harris has steadily declined since her jump after the presidential debate. Then, after the vice presidential debate and her media blitz, she fell even further. Currently, Trump is up 9.2 points — the highest he has been since July 31st.

In the RCP polling averages, Trump is leading in six out of seven swing states. Now, keep in mind his lead is within the margin of error and different pollsters are depicting the same stagnant, deadlocked election.

However, Democrats should be worried about the 2020 and 2024 polling comparison. In 2020, Joe Biden secured the election by flipping Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada. On this day in the election, Biden was polling well above five points in all those states except for Arizona. To be fair, Biden eventually polled worse in those states as election day neared, but what’s critical is that he still polled significantly higher than Harris throughout the race.

Take Michigan for example. At this point in the 2020 election, Biden was polling 7.0 points over Trump. The final RCP polling average for Michigan in 2020 was 4.2 points in favor of Biden, and he won the state by 2.8 points. Four years later, Trump is ahead in Michigan by 0.9, which is the first time the RCP polling average has him ahead since July 29th. However, a more jarring fact is that, for the entirety of the 2020 election, Trump never surpassed Biden in the RCP polling average in Michigan. The same is true for Pennsylvania and Nevada.

And, to reiterate, he is leading in all three of those states.

This goes both ways though. Trump hasn’t really moved the needle in North Carolina or Georgia even compared to the 2020 polling in those states. If he loses either state, he would need to overcompensate with Rustbelt states to win. If Harris flips both North Carolina and Georgia, Trump would need to win every swing state besides Wisconsin to win.

This is all to say that neither campaign is relaxing. With 22 days until the election, both sides are ramping up their ground game in all seven swing states. These polls are not the final tally but one estimation set in time — a prediction of what may happen based on current moods.

And the reality is that the only number that matters is the last one on election day.