Photo by Kevin Lamarque on Reuters
From early case studies to modern CDC research, understanding autism is a challenge scientists have long dreamed of tackling. In recent years, diagnoses have risen sharply, resulting in renewed attention from the Trump administration. That attention culminated just over a month ago, when the Department of Health advanced a striking new claim linking a common over-the-counter medication to autism.
“Tylenol during pregnancy can be associated with a very increased risk of autism,” President Donald Trump announced in his September 22nd press conference. “It’s artificially induced… Tylenol, don’t take it.” This announcement sent shock waves throughout the country, marking the administration’s first clear statement on what it believes may be contributing to rising autism rates.
But how much of this claim is grounded in science?
To start, we need to get the full picture, beginning with defining autism. According to the CDC, “Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a developmental disability caused by differences in the brain.” The condition is often characterized by challenges in social communication, repetitive behaviors, or sensory sensitivities. Autism diagnoses are still relatively new, with the first one being issued in 1943 by psychiatrist Leo Kanner. Today, the spectrum includes individuals with a wide range of support needs. Some people may display above-average intelligence and fewer communication impairments while others may require substantial daily support. All individuals, no matter their level of needed support, fall under the modern umbrella of ASD.
So what’s brought finding the cause of autism to the forefront of American medical focus? “President Trump tasked me with finding out what’s causing the autism epidemic.” Robert F. Kennedy Jr. explained in a press conference this April. “It’s going to be done by credible scientists… we’re going to do it very, very quickly.” Kennedy, a former environmental lawyer and current Secretary of Health and Human Services, has long argued that autism stems from vaccines even before the “Tylenol announcement,” pointing to the parallel between the increase in the amount of vaccines now administered to children and the increase in autism diagnoses. Multiple scientists have butt heads with him over this, pointing out that correlation doesn’t necessarily mean causation. Though the vaccine theory remains widely disputed by researchers, Kennedy continues to promote it. To understand the scientific consensus, it helps to look at what the data actually shows.
First and foremost, there has indeed been an increase in autism diagnoses over the past few years. According to Ladd-Acosta PhD, “Over the past 20 years, autism diagnoses have increased by about 300%.” The CDC furthers that, “Prevalence increased from one in 150 in 2000 to one in 36 in 2020.” While the spike in diagnoses is not up for debate, the reason for that spike remains unclear. Kennedy vehemently supports the vaccine theory. “They get the shot… and three months later their brain is gone.” Kennedy remarks in a quote cited by Scientific American. “This is a holocaust.”This theory isn’t underground in the United States with roughly 15% of Americans sharing Kennedy’s opinions, but what do most scientists say?
“Vaccines do not cause autism,” the CDC delivers. “Studies have shown that there is no link between receiving vaccines and developing ASD.” Whether it be Thimerosal, a common compound in vaccines, the MMR shot, or the idea that children are being pumped with “too many shots too quickly,” scientists have worked to prove that time and time again, there is no link between vaccination and the development of autism. Instead, many scientists believe genes are the most likely cause for autism. “An overwhelming amount of evidence points to genetics.” The National Foundation for Infectious Diseases publishes. “There may be multiple genetic changes interacting to cause autism.” As for the increase in autism diagnoses, most attribute it to two main reasons. “The first is the broadened definition of Autism Spectrum Disorder,” an article from Johns Hopkins explains, “Second, there have been… increased screenings and community members are also more aware of the symptoms.” So the scientific community has simply been able to recognize more cases of autism in recent years instead of there being an actual increase in existing cases.
If vaccines don’t cause autism, and scientists claim its genetics, how did we get to Tylenol?
The precise name this administration cites as the culprit is acetaminophen, synonymous with Tylenol. The Department of Health relied on recent studies that reported statistical correlations between Tylenol usage during pregnancy and developmental differences to arrive at this claim. These studies, while they saw correlation, did not actually establish causation and were widely criticized for methodological limitations and flaws, including reliance on self-reported medication use and failure to control factors such as underlying maternal illness. Despite this, the administration framed these correlations as evidence of a causal relationship.
Other research points in the opposite direction. Most notably, Brian Lee’s 2024 study involving 2.5 million Swedish children. It was a sibling controlled experiment, where the same mother would use Tylenol during one pregnancy but wouldn’t in another. The conclusion? “Acetaminophen use during pregnancy was not associated with children’s risk of autism.” Published The Journal of the American Medical Association.
If most scientific research veers away from Tylenol and the studies the Department of Health relied on were contested, why does this administration continue to back up their claim? One possible explanation is the combination of the administration’s haste to find a cure to autism and the general mistrust the head of the Department of Health has in common medical practices. If the administration believes that Tylenol, an extremely common medication in modern medicine, is in the realm of possibility for causing autism, then they will be quick to scrutinize it. This rush to find a cause for autism and the administration’s doubt held for modern medicine may have led to some premature conclusions, bringing us to the Tylenol debacle the scientific community has been forced to sort through.
Whether or not Tylenol plays a role in autism will likely remain a point of debate throughout this administration’s term. But, given the lack of substantial evidence and the many respected voices in the field arguing against the claim, it seems unlikely. The true cause of autism remains elusive and resistant to the certainty science demands. Amid the allegations, arguments, and emerging research, it’s crucial not to lose sight of how a supposed “breakthrough” like this could shape public understanding of both medical institutions and autistic people themselves. In the end, the power of this discovery, real or imagined, will lie in the hands of those who choose how to use it.
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