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The Future of France’s Political Instability

Photo by Paquier Jacques on Creative Commons

When it comes to political instability, the most prevalent examples that come to mind are countries in war-torn states that see democratic backsliding, like areas in the Middle East. However, when looking beyond that point, political instability exists, even in democratic countries in the European Union (EU) like France.

As contextualized by the Economist earlier this year, France’s current prime minister Sebastien Lecornu is President Emmanuel Macron’s fifth prime minister in just over a year. The most significant factor of such instability highlights the declining popularity of Macron himself. In fact, studies from The Telegraph have showcased significant drops in Macron’s approval rate, hovering at around 14% due to citizens’ perception that Macron continues prioritizing freedoms for the wealthy individuals. 

The National Assembly of France is the lower house of the bicameral French Parliament, aimed at holding the French government accountable for their actions and decisions. As president of the country, political stability relies on the division of power within the National Assembly, specifically in maintaining the majority of votes to pass legislation and decisions with ease. However, historically and especially in today’s situation, the National Assembly has been divided into three political parties: the New Popular Front (NPF) left-wing coalition, President Macron’s Ensemble, and the far-right National Rally (RN). Out of the three political groups, President Macron only has influence over 29% of the votes compared to the NFP controlling a higher percentage.

Without a majority in the National Assembly, president Macron and his prime ministers have failed to resolve the ongoing political gridlock surrounding the country’s 2026 budget. Currently, France has the burden of 3.9 trillion dollars worth of debt, equivalent to 116% of France’s GDP. As a result, debates about the 2026 budget plan have continued to cause gridlock. Specifically, Macron’s policy to reduce the wealth taxes have been disputed by the NPF who argue that such policies have burdened the working class while enhancing the wealthy class. Unfortunately, neither side has come to an optimal solution that would balance the wealth inequality seen in the country.

Looking into the future, it becomes clear that as Macron continues cycling through his choices for prime ministers, political instability only continues to deteriorate. Even though Macron refuses to resign as president of France, the only clear path is chaos, mainly due to the fragmentation of the national assembly, leading to a continuous cycle of unfavorable events for Macron.

Although compromise seems like the most optimal solution for Macron, attempts have led to continuous instability, specifically related to the switching of prime ministers. Prime minister Sebastien Lecornu had originally resigned after serving for a month due to continuous political tensions about his choices for cabinet members. However, without much choice left, Macron re-appointed Lecornu just a few days after the resignation. Currently, Lecornu faces just as much backlash as the president. Due to continuous political gridlock, Lecornu has proposed to concede to certain left-wing claims and expedite the process of decision making. However, such a proposal has only increased backlash from his own political party. Additionally, with Lecornu’s loyalty to Macron, the criticism has transferred to the president as well.

The impacts have been detrimental for Macron’s political party as proven by the president’s approval rating. But beyond political implications, the French citizens have been struggling through rising inflation due to national debt and uncertainty about economic stability, further exacerbating poverty that impacts 9.8 million individuals in France. 

As the political crisis in France continues to deteriorate, so does the quality of life for all citizens. It is time for France’s government to place their political differences aside and focus on enhancing the livelihoods of the French people first.

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