The “Save Brexit” campaign bus proclaims the cost of withdrawal from the EU. Photo by Wikimedia Commons.
Nearly a decade after the Brexit referendum, the economic and environmental verdict is becoming clear: leaving the European Union has been a large, costly mistake. Mounting data, expert analyses, and public opinion increasingly agree that Britain’s best path lies not in isolation, but in reconciliation with Europe.
The Economic Fallout
Brexit was sold as a project of independence and prosperity. Instead, it has produced stagnation. A survey of over 600 economists found that 88% predicted Britain’s withdrawal from the EU would harm its growth prospects.
Unemployment in the UK has climbed to 4.7%, the highest in four years, while wage growth has slowed. “[In 2025], productivity has dropped, shrinking GDP by 4% and trade by 15%,” economic analyst Dr. Erik Katovich, Economist at the London School of Economics, said. Exports to the EU are 18% below 2019, and exports to non-EU countries have fallen by 14%.
The underlying issue is simple: the EU Single Market is irreplaceable. As former MEP Richard Corbett, Senior Fellow at the University of York’s Department of Politics, explains, Britain’s attempt to replicate the trade deals it once enjoyed through the EU has failed. British goods now face extra costs and delays at borders, costing businesses over £330 million annually, while the EU- Britain’s largest export market and supply source- has become harder to access. Rejoining would restore economic stability and open the door to renewed investment.
The empirical numbers support this. Studies by Dr. Chris H. Veld, Economist and Professor at Tilburg University, show the Single Market increased trade by over 100% on average. Meanwhile, “The UK economy is now 4% smaller than it would have been without Brexit, costing roughly £100 billion annually,” Dr. William J. Atkinson said, Lead Economist at the University of Cambridge.
Before Brexit, the UK was the EU’s leading destination for business investment, creating over 85,000 jobs in 2015. Seventy-two percent of investors cited the Single Market as a key reason for investing in the UK. However, since Brexit, foreign investment has dropped 10% below pre-2016 levels.
While sovereignty was a central argument for leaving, economic independence cannot exist without economic strength. As former Bank of England policymaker Adam Posen notes, “Sovereignty is meaningless if your economy is too weak to act on it.” Currently, the UK must follow many EU standards anyway to access European markets, but without any say in shaping them.
Rejoining the EU would restore investor confidence and simplify logistics. As David Prior, Senior Trade Policy Fellow at the University of Sussex, notes, reintegration would “create more attractive conditions for investors” and rebuild the UK’s supply chains. Dr. Mohammad Uz-Zaman, Economist at the London School of Economics, in 2024, adds that long-term growth, affordable energy, and stable trade are impossible without deep economic cooperation. He warns that without the EU, Britain risks falling behind not just Germany or France, but even Poland in per-capita income within a decade.
The Environmental Consequences
Brexit’s damage extends beyond the economy. It has also undermined Britain’s environmental leadership. According to Dr. Simon Poynting, 2025, Environmental Economist at the University of Manchester, the UK is now off track to meet its net-zero emissions target by 2050. As Dr. Eleanor Reed, Policy Analyst at the London School of Economics, says, “Since leaving the EU, the UK has failed to adopt 28 major pieces of EU environmental legislation” and is dismantling vital legal protections for air, water, and wildlife.
Due to such causes, ninety-nine percent of Britons now breathe toxic air, causing over 30,000 deaths a year and costing £27 billion in health damages, according to Dr. Lina Chu. Meanwhile, the EU’s environmental policies have achieved measurable progress. The European Environment Agency confirmed that EU emissions were 31% lower than in 1990- surpassing its 2020 climate targets.
If Britain rejoined, it could once again share in the EU’s robust regulatory framework and access the collaborative infrastructure necessary to tackle the climate crisis. As Dr. Alessandra Cassella, Climate Policy Researcher at University College London, in 2023 warns, every tenth of a degree of global warming could mean 100 million deaths worldwide.
Due to Brexit, Britain’s economy is smaller, its trade is weaker, its environment is dirtier, and its citizens are poorer.
Rejoining the EU is not an admission of failure; instead, it is a recognition of reality. To rebuild its economy, restore its global standing, and secure a livable future, Britain must return to where it belongs: at the heart of Europe.
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