Israel and Iran Went to War for 12 Days. What Does This Show About China?

In recent months, it’s become clear that the Palestine-Israel conflict has devolved into more than just a bilateral war. Iranian-backed proxy groups, fractured international agreements, and deep-rooted ideological differences have entrenched the whole region in a complex conflict. By bombing Iranian nuclear facilities, both the US and Israel have now become directly involved—sparking further concerns about global stability.

Amid all this uncertainty and instability, one country has been unusually eager to step in: China.

On June 13th, just hours after Israel’s early morning attacks on Iranian targets, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated that “China stands ready to play a constructive role in helping ease the situation” between Israel and Iran. It’s clear that China wants a seat at the table—but what exactly do they stand to gain?

Given China’s broader geopolitical ambitions, it’s not surprising they want influence in the Middle East. China has long positioned itself as a champion of the Global South through major investments and infrastructure projects. And it’s no secret that China strives to build a multipolar world order. The Middle East—and the Global South more broadly—are key to achieving that vision and challenging U.S. dominance. With its growing economic footprint, China is often viewed as a rising power in the region.

However, what’s more unusual is Beijing’s attempt to play a neutral role in a conflict involving Israel. It would be natural—and rhetorically easy—for China to harshly criticize Israel, the only liberal democracy in the region, in its conflicts with both Palestine and Iran. While China has condemned Israel’s actions, it has also stopped short of offering any meaningful support to Iran.

In fact, after Israel launched targeted strikes on Iran on June 13th, China did not extend military assistance to its supposed partner.

Put simply, “as a security partner, China is not there” for Iran, said Mohammed Baharoon, director general of the Dubai Public Policy Research Center.

CNN further notes that “Beijing and Tehran have no mutual defense treaty,” and that China “may be looking more skeptically at Iran as a powerful partner in the region in light of the country’s inability to project power to defend its airspace against Israel.”

So, what does the 12-day war really show? Despite all the posturing, China is nowhere near replacing the U.S. as the region’s main security guarantor. Its influence in the Middle East is largely economic.
China is Iran’s largest trading partner, with over $4.59 billion in Iranian exports going to Beijing. In fact, more than 90% of Iran’s oil exports now head to China, making China an economic lifeline for a country crippled by international sanctions.

But this dependence works both ways. In times of conflict, the world expects China to defend its partners. Yet China steps back because it knows it cannot commit to a full-scale defense of a declining regional power. And every time it retreats, it loses credibility.

That’s exactly what the 12-day war between Israel and Iran exposed.

This is why China leans so heavily on vague rhetoric about “peace” and “stability.” In the days leading up to the conflict, Beijing even stated that “China is willing to actively engage in maritime security cooperation with all parties.” But after Israel’s strikes, China offered no maritime response, despite its growing naval capabilities.

In the end, even China’s diplomatic promises are more rhetorical than real. For all its talk of development and peace, China simply cannot compete with hard military power.

In the Middle East, diplomacy without military backing is just noise. Economics-backed diplomacy will never succeed in a region that has been molded by military conflict for decades. This teaches us why the U.S. still holds sway: because its political and military alliances give its words weight.

The US has permanent military bases in the Middle East. China conducts military drills that don’t translate into meaningful action when the shots are really fired.